Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

343.27 – 378.21

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

311 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.5 ±9.8

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 187.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 98.69Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 57.28Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.7 ±9.3

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 49.92Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 152.49Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 175.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4469, 1983, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4469, 1983, 488

Auto

75.8 23%

Teleop

155.1 46%

Endgame

104.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8248, 4089, 5468

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8248, 4089, 5468

Auto

69.8 18%

Teleop

229.8 61%

Endgame

79.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.8 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score343.3pts

Blue projected score378.2pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.9
Score range: 287–434
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 312.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.5Season APEX706.7

75.8Auto69.8

155.1Teleop229.8

104.8Endgame79.5

206Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	100
teleop	161	279
endgame	122	94
foul	0	0
total	311	473

Result

Final score

311 – 473

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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