Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.18 – 214.21

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.5 ±8.8

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 208.31Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 91.07Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 110.8Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.1 ±10.4

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 43.04Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 87.97Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 83.2Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4915, 2976, 2811

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4915, 2976, 2811

Auto

60.1 15%

Teleop

222.0 55%

Endgame

123.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1294, 753, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1294, 753, 3218

Auto

34.5 16%

Teleop

85.6 40%

Endgame

94.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score410.2pts

Blue projected score214.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196
Score range: 158–466
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 313.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.5Season APEX360.1

60.1Auto34.5

222Teleop85.6

123.3Endgame94.3

156Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	42
teleop	178	109
endgame	60	66
foul	15	20
total	306	237

Result

Final score

306 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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