Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

311.99 – 392.41

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

309 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 1.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.7 ±10.4

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 63.88Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 113.21Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 134.9Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574.9 ±9.8

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 84.81Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 169.47Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 138.13Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8248, 1425, 4512

/ 100 compat

Projected

312 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8248, 1425, 4512

Auto

40.9 13%

Teleop

192.6 61%

Endgame

81.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7034, 4915, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7034, 4915, 1778

Auto

68.7 18%

Teleop

220.5 57%

Endgame

96.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score312pts

Blue projected score392.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 248–456
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 701 vs event baseline 357.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.7Season APEX574.9

40.9Auto68.7

192.6Teleop220.5

81.2Endgame96.7

116Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	72
teleop	167	244
endgame	85	71
foul	0	5
total	309	392

Result

Final score

309 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 1.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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