Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.62 – 381.05

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.6 ±9.8

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 97.64Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 169.72Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 122.26Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.5 ±9.8

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 134.81Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 112.31Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 133.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4061, 4450, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4061, 4450, 3663

Auto

58.6 15%

Teleop

264.6 67%

Endgame

70.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9450, 4488, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9450, 4488, 1425

Auto

48.0 12%

Teleop

193.6 50%

Endgame

143.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score389.6pts

Blue projected score381.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 324–447
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 317.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.6Season APEX577.5

58.6Auto48

264.6Teleop193.6

70Endgame143.3

75Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	37
teleop	52	215
endgame	0	40
foul	0	15
total	120	307

Result

Final score

120 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 171.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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