Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.65 – 320.22

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

311 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±9.4

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 48.6Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 86.63Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 50.42Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.8 ±9.8

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 194.14Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 72.13Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 53.95Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4131, 2374, 9023

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4131, 2374, 9023

Auto

40.1 23%

Teleop

76.4 43%

Endgame

60.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6696, 1778, 4125

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6696, 1778, 4125

Auto

67.1 22%

Teleop

181.4 58%

Endgame

63.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score185.6pts

Blue projected score320.2pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.6
Score range: 129–377
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 317.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.8Season APEX583.8

40.1Auto67.1

76.4Teleop181.4

60.6Endgame63.3

139Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	66
teleop	185	219
endgame	76	41
foul	15	0
total	311	326

Result

Final score

311 – 326

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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