Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.58 – 97.85

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

315 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 141.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.6 ±9.8

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 135.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 4.55Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 111.48Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.8

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 63.04Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 56.84Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -22.03Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2522, 1318, 2521

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2522, 1318, 2521

Auto

56.1 25%

Teleop

112.9 50%

Endgame

57.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8051, 2412, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8051, 2412, 1595

Auto

10.0 11%

Teleop

53.3 57%

Endgame

29.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.84 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score251.6pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.7
Score range: 41–309
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 632 vs event baseline 317.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.6Season APEX455.1

56.1Auto10

112.9Teleop53.3

57.1Endgame29.4

194Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	72
teleop	139	192
endgame	117	53
foul	10	0
total	315	317

Result

Final score

315 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 141.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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