Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

252.63 – 300.65

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

431 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567 ±9.4

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 108.73Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 34.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 109.75Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.5 ±9.3

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 63.43Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 80.03Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 157.19Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1540, 10416, 9430

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1540, 10416, 9430

Auto

69.2 28%

Teleop

127.2 52%

Endgame

48.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10991, 10079, 5937

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10991, 10079, 5937

Auto

64.2 21%

Teleop

154.7 50%

Endgame

93.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.78 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score252.6pts

Blue projected score300.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48
Score range: 196–358
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 733 vs event baseline 315.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567Season APEX580.5

69.2Auto64.2

127.2Teleop154.7

48.7Endgame93.6

104Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	78
teleop	195	146
endgame	135	63
foul	25	15
total	431	302

Result

Final score

431 – 302

Prediction missed · off by 89.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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