Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

419.22 – 302.3

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

426 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 62 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 948 ±8.7

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 166Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 55.02Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 198.2Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±10.4

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 122.62Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 80.96Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 98.72Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 360, 4469

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2910, 360, 4469

Auto

67.8 17%

Teleop

242.2 60%

Endgame

92.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2976, 7034, 2926

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2976, 7034, 2926

Auto

23.2 8%

Teleop

170.4 55%

Endgame

115.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 50%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.88 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score419.2pts

Blue projected score302.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 50%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.9
Score range: 245–476
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 315.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

948Season APEX364.3

67.8Auto23.2

242.2Teleop170.4

92.6Endgame115.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	28
teleop	237	97
endgame	57	60
foul	15	0
total	426	185

Result

Final score

426 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 62 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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