Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.74 – 234.66

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 621.7 ±9.3

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 134.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 51.96Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 112.91Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±9.8

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 187.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 16.82Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4131Iron Patriots

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 29.9Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 2374, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5468, 2374, 9450

Auto

47.1 16%

Teleop

160.5 56%

Endgame

80.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4915, 492, 4131

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4915, 492, 4131

Auto

9.6 4%

Teleop

136.6 57%

Endgame

92.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score299.7pts

Blue projected score234.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.1
Score range: 180–355
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 856 vs event baseline 306.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

621.7Season APEX494.4

47.1Auto9.6

160.5Teleop136.6

80.8Endgame92.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	62
teleop	266	204
endgame	121	115
foul	5	5
total	470	386

Result

Final score

470 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 160.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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