Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.99 – 110.34

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

198 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±10.4

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 77.67Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX -7.34Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 78.66Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.3 ±10.4

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 76.85Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

957SWARM - South and West Albany Robotics Maniacs

Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 43.16Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX -9.67Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4512, 8896, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4512, 8896, 753

Auto

34.0 23%

Teleop

55.3 38%

Endgame

56.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1983, 957, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1983, 957, 1595

Auto

21.9 23%

Teleop

55.0 57%

Endgame

20.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.7
Score range: 54–205
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 311.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.1Season APEX325.3

34Auto21.9

55.3Teleop55

56.6Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	37
teleop	84	112
endgame	56	53
foul	0	15
total	198	217

Result

Final score

198 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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