Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

177.34 – 290.06

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 129.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 527.3 ±9.4

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 43.28Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 28.07Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 105.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.3 ±10.4

8051TinkRex

Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 134.58Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 61.32Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 94.16Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 1294, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9023, 1294, 4488

Auto

51.0 30%

Teleop

76.1 44%

Endgame

45.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8051, 10416, 997

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8051, 10416, 997

Auto

43.1 15%

Teleop

157.6 54%

Endgame

90.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score177.3pts

Blue projected score290.1pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.7
Score range: 120–347
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 317.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

527.3Season APEX434.3

51Auto43.1

76.1Teleop157.6

45.7Endgame90

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	50
teleop	109	45
endgame	65	22
foul	0	5
total	268	122

Result

Final score

268 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 129.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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