Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.91 – 461.38

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 505

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.1 ±10.4

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 35.35Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4061SciBorgs

Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 128.94Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 67.62Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 769.9 ±8.7

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 138Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 176.13Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4089Stealth Robotics

Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 147.25Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 4061, 3218

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1318, 4061, 3218

Auto

30.5 14%

Teleop

125.5 56%

Endgame

69.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4450, 5937, 4089

/ 100 compat

Projected

461.4 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4450, 5937, 4089

Auto

103.0 22%

Teleop

256.5 56%

Endgame

100.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score231.9pts

Blue projected score461.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -229.5
Score range: 175–518
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 657 vs event baseline 316.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.1Season APEX769.9

30.5Auto103

125.5Teleop256.5

69.7Endgame100.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	87
teleop	71	289
endgame	41	129
foul	15	0
total	152	505

Result

Final score

152 – 505

Prediction correct · off by 61.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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