Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.98 – 214.69

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 79.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 685.9 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 45.38Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 115.93Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 185.67Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618 ±9.3

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 32.73Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 102.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 79.26Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2412, 1540, 6696

/ 100 compat

Projected

347 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 1540, 6696

Auto

71.7 23%

Teleop

180.9 59%

Endgame

54.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10991, 2522, 1778

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10991, 2522, 1778

Auto

47.4 23%

Teleop

82.5 40%

Endgame

73.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score347pts

Blue projected score214.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.3
Score range: 158–404
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 314.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

685.9Season APEX618

71.7Auto47.4

180.9Teleop82.5

54.6Endgame73.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	93
teleop	251	144
endgame	131	40
foul	0	15
total	428	292

Result

Final score

428 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 79.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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