Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.26 – 203.51

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

223 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 161.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.7 ±10.4

9430CTEC Robotics

Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 117.67Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 97.1Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8248ChainLynx

Season APEX 130.7Event APEX 82.49Rank 44Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.2 ±9.8

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 99.96Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 26.94Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 76.61Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9430, 2471, 8248

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9430, 2471, 8248

Auto

68.4 23%

Teleop

166.8 57%

Endgame

56.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 955, 2521, 3663

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 955, 2521, 3663

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

104.8 55%

Endgame

48.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.55 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score297.3pts

Blue projected score203.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.8
Score range: 148–353
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 676 vs event baseline 313.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.7Season APEX578.2

68.4Auto37.8

166.8Teleop104.8

56Endgame48.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	86
teleop	128	274
endgame	27	88
foul	0	5
total	223	453

Result

Final score

223 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 161.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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