Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

215.02 – 217.91

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 664.5 ±9.8

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 140.79Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 11.77Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 62.46Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.9 ±9.4

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 62.46Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4512Otter Chaos

Season APEX 185Event APEX 46.35Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 109.1Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2910, 4125, 1983

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2910, 4125, 1983

Auto

15.0 7%

Teleop

134.2 61%

Endgame

69.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2811, 4512, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 4512, 10079

Auto

41.8 19%

Teleop

125.7 57%

Endgame

53.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score215pts

Blue projected score217.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.9
Score range: 158–275
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 314.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

664.5Season APEX494.9

15Auto41.8

134.2Teleop125.7

69.3Endgame53.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	55
teleop	142	124
endgame	51	93
foul	35	0
total	308	272

Result

Final score

308 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 73.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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