Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.05 – 210.15

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 130.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.5 ±8.8

9023Future Martians

Season APEX 273.9Event APEX 44.49Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 179.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1595The Dragons

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 2.94Rank 34Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 610.3 ±9.4

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 179.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2926Robo Sparks

Season APEX 120Event APEX 27.59Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10416Radical Raccoons

Season APEX 142.3Event APEX 2.94Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9023, 5468, 1595

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9023, 5468, 1595

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

131.1 59%

Endgame

53.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2046, 2926, 10416

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2046, 2926, 10416

Auto

34.4 17%

Teleop

124.6 61%

Endgame

45.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score210.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.9
Score range: 153–284
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 315.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.5Season APEX610.3

39.2Auto34.4

131.1Teleop124.6

53.2Endgame45.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	85
teleop	79	222
endgame	63	121
foul	0	0
total	184	428

Result

Final score

184 – 428

Prediction missed · off by 130.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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