Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.56 – 241.83

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

332 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.4 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 143.82Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

492Titan Robotics Club

Season APEX 135.9Event APEX 55.08Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9450Velocity Raptors

Season APEX 204.6Event APEX 101.66Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.6 ±9.8

4469R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial Intelligence Division)

A+

Season APEX 307.3Event APEX 143.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 79.26Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 18.8Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5937, 492, 9450

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 492, 9450

Auto

45.9 16%

Teleop

171.1 58%

Endgame

76.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4469, 1425, 753

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4469, 1425, 753

Auto

61.4 26%

Teleop

127.3 55%

Endgame

44.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score300.6pts

Blue projected score241.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.7
Score range: 186–357
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 308.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.4Season APEX653.6

45.9Auto61.4

171.1Teleop127.3

76.1Endgame44.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	80
teleop	127	251
endgame	154	154
foul	0	0
total	332	485

Result

Final score

332 – 485

Prediction missed · off by 137.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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