Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.24 – 118.11

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 595.9 ±8.8

1294Pack of Parts

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 31.48Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4450Olympia Robotics Federation

Season APEX 248.9Event APEX 147.27Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 105.49Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 765.5 ±8.7

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 8.03Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 31.79Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 78.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1294, 4450, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1294, 4450, 1540

Auto

22.1 8%

Teleop

161.4 58%

Endgame

93.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 360

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 360

Auto

27.6 29%

Teleop

44.6 47%

Endgame

23.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.2pts

Blue projected score118.1pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.1
Score range: 62–340
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 311.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

595.9Season APEX765.5

22.1Auto27.6

161.4Teleop44.6

93.3Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	42
teleop	176	105
endgame	54	26
foul	5	45
total	311	218

Result

Final score

311 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 63.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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