Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
227.36 – 174.83
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
202 – 462
Prediction missed · off by 156.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±10.4
Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 29.38Rank 48Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 148.3Event APEX 144.57Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 133.7Event APEX 53.41Rank 35Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.1 ±9.8
Season APEX 99.8Event APEX 39.14Rank 43Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 158.2Event APEX 49.16Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 268.1Event APEX 86.53Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4131, 8051, 957
54
/ 100 compatProjected
227.4 pts
~2.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4131, 8051, 957
Auto
20.3 9%
Teleop
138.9 62%
Endgame
66.3 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4061, 9430, 4089
51
/ 100 compatProjected
174.8 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4061, 9430, 4089
Auto
36.2 24%
Teleop
87.4 58%
Endgame
28.4 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 28%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score227.4pts
Blue projected score174.8pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample230alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%
Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 34%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 52.5
- Score range
- 119–283
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
377.7Season APEX526.1
20.3Auto36.2
138.9Teleop87.4
66.3Endgame28.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 39 | 77 |
| teleop | 123 | 283 |
| endgame | 40 | 102 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 202 | 462 |
Result
Final score
202 – 462
Prediction missed · off by 156.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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