Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.45 – 224.17

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 24.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±10.4

3663CPR - Cedar Park Robotics

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 57.14Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1778Chill Out

Season APEX 183.2Event APEX 85.6Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8896Wolf Tech Robotics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 33.71Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.5 ±10.4

4125Confidential

Season APEX 196.3Event APEX 33.71Rank 47Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70342B Determined

Season APEX 128.9Event APEX 85.6Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

488Team XBOT

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 104.86Rank 33Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3663, 1778, 8896

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3663, 1778, 8896

Auto

30.8 18%

Teleop

107.3 62%

Endgame

34.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4125, 7034, 488

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4125, 7034, 488

Auto

33.1 15%

Teleop

126.2 58%

Endgame

56.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score176.5pts

Blue projected score224.2pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.7
Score range: 119–281
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 319.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

401.9Season APEX439.5

30.8Auto33.1

107.3Teleop126.2

34.5Endgame56.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	33
teleop	108	119
endgame	22	58
foul	5	0
total	212	210

Result

Final score

212 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 24.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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