Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.17 – 349.98

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.2 ±9.8

1318Issaquah Robotics Society

Season APEX 132Event APEX 54.86Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX -17.12Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2374Jesuit Robotics

Season APEX 109.2Event APEX 83.43Rank 29Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.1 ±10.4

997Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 143.7Event APEX 127.26Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2521SERT

Season APEX 133.8Event APEX 83.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 139.29Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1318, 10991, 2374

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1318, 10991, 2374

Auto

20.9 20%

Teleop

57.7 55%

Endgame

26.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 997, 2521, 10079

/ 100 compat

Projected

350 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 997, 2521, 10079

Auto

69.1 20%

Teleop

201.6 60%

Endgame

67.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score121.2pts

Blue projected score350pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -228.8
Score range: 62–409
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 328.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.2Season APEX436.1

20.9Auto69.1

57.7Teleop201.6

26Endgame67.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	32
teleop	104	151
endgame	39	85
foul	0	0
total	181	268

Result

Final score

181 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 70.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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