Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 100

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

200.92 – 385.17

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

389 – 560

Prediction correct · off by 181.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.4 ±10.4

1983Skunk Works Robotics

Season APEX 99.9Event APEX 16.38Rank 40Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10079Arrowdynamics

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 83.13Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 101.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657.2 ±9.3

5937MI Robotics

Season APEX 252.9Event APEX 149.8Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6696Cardinal Dynamics

Season APEX 204.3Event APEX 128.87Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1425Error Code Xero

Season APEX 200Event APEX 106.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1983, 10079, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1983, 10079, 4488

Auto

58.6 29%

Teleop

97.1 49%

Endgame

43.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5937, 6696, 1425

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.2 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5937, 6696, 1425

Auto

56.6 14%

Teleop

230.6 58%

Endgame

107.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score200.9pts

Blue projected score385.2pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.3
Score range: 140–446
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 949 vs event baseline 340.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.4Season APEX657.2

58.6Auto56.6

97.1Teleop230.6

43.3Endgame107.2

163Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	67
teleop	209	353
endgame	121	115
foul	5	25
total	389	560

Result

Final score

389 – 560

Prediction correct · off by 181.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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