Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.45 – 182.54

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

385 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 142 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 692.7 ±9.3

2976The Spartabots

Season APEX 115.4Event APEX 178Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 121.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 134Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569 ±9.8

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 11.11Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4915Spartronics

Season APEX 262.8Event APEX 112Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 59.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2976, 2522, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.5 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2976, 2522, 955

Auto

81.7 19%

Teleop

237.6 56%

Endgame

104.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3218, 4915, 4488

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3218, 4915, 4488

Auto

33.3 19%

Teleop

99.8 57%

Endgame

42.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 3 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score433.5pts

Blue projected score182.5pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 250.9
Score range: 125–491
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-18
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 803 vs event baseline 320.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

692.7Season APEX569

81.7Auto33.3

237.6Teleop99.8

104.1Endgame42.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	61
teleop	159	250
endgame	148	107
foul	20	0
total	385	418

Result

Final score

385 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 142 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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