Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.31 – 252.83

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±9.8

753High Desert Droids

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 99.25Rank 36Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4488Shockwave

Season APEX 172.9Event APEX 114.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 147.02Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.1 ±9.8

3218Panther Robotics

Season APEX 133.3Event APEX 87.66Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10991PioBytes

Season APEX 169Event APEX 20.14Rank 50Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2471Team Mean Machine

Season APEX 182.8Event APEX 145.03Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 753, 4488, 948

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 753, 4488, 948

Auto

83.7 24%

Teleop

178.6 52%

Endgame

79.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3218, 10991, 2471

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3218, 10991, 2471

Auto

58.1 25%

Teleop

113.5 49%

Endgame

61.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.53 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.3pts

Blue projected score252.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.5
Score range: 189–424
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 357.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597.2Season APEX485.1

83.7Auto58.1

178.6Teleop113.5

79.9Endgame61.4

138Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	29
teleop	97	76
endgame	34	62
foul	20	0
total	208	167

Result

Final score

208 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 119.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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