Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

591.2 – 423.16

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

687 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.6 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 36.2Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 240.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 314.46Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 80.36Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 149.54Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 193.26Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

591.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 2910, 2046

Auto

127.5 22%

Teleop

310.1 53%

Endgame

147.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

92.4 23%

Teleop

229.7 56%

Endgame

86.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.73 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score591.2pts

Blue projected score423.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168
Score range: 359–655
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1040 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.6Season APEX759.6

127.5Auto92.4

310.1Teleop229.7

147.4Endgame86.3

69Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	154	112
teleop	350	182
endgame	168	59
foul	15	0
total	687	353

Result

Final score

687 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Match videos

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