Pacific Northwest FIRST District Championship

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

612.83 – 438.95

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 162.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 867.6 ±7.5

2811StormBots

Season APEX 151.3Event APEX 43.75Rank 45Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2910Jack in the Bot

Season APEX 368.3Event APEX 247.33Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2046Bear Metal

Season APEX 348Event APEX 321.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 759.6 ±8.1

2412Robototes

Season APEX 215.1Event APEX 85.3Rank 23Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

948NRG (Newport Robotics Group)

Season APEX 278Event APEX 154.49Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1540Flaming Chickens

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 199.16Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2811, 2910, 2046

/ 100 compat

Projected

612.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2811, 2910, 2046

Auto

123.6 20%

Teleop

331.0 54%

Endgame

153.4 25%

Strengths

· 2046 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2412, 948, 1540

/ 100 compat

Projected

439 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2412, 948, 1540

Auto

90.5 21%

Teleop

242.6 57%

Endgame

91.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.74 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score612.8pts

Blue projected score439pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample230alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.9
Score range: 375–677
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 727 vs event baseline 356.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

867.6Season APEX759.6

123.6Auto90.5

331Teleop242.6

153.4Endgame91.6

65Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	154	109
teleop	170	113
endgame	107	39
foul	15	20
total	446	281

Result

Final score

446 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 162.4 pts

Match videos

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