Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.14 – 119.12

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.3 ±10.5

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 21.79Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 42.2Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 76.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.2 ±10.5

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 39.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 47.23Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32.44Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 10070, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 10070, 708

Auto

32.1 23%

Teleop

73.1 53%

Endgame

32.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2559, 10157, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 10157, 433

Auto

18.4 16%

Teleop

69.5 61%

Endgame

25.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.1pts

Blue projected score119.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 95–164
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.3Season APEX200.2

32.1Auto18.4

73.1Teleop69.5

32.6Endgame25.9

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	36
teleop	43	49
endgame	4	15
foul	5	10
total	68	110

Result

Final score

68 – 110

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Match videos

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