Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.78 – 206.35

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±9.9

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 9.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 120.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 90.33Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 617.3 ±9.3

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 75.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 19.34Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 111.7Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10600, 272, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 272, 5181

Auto

43.7 20%

Teleop

119.4 54%

Endgame

58.7 26%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 10918, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 10918, 484

Auto

30.8 15%

Teleop

113.0 55%

Endgame

60.6 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.8pts

Blue projected score206.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.4
Score range: 182–244
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 540 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX617.3

43.7Auto30.8

119.4Teleop113

58.7Endgame60.6

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	55
teleop	159	138
endgame	93	51
foul	10	5
total	291	249

Result

Final score

291 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Match videos

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