Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.6 – 107.83

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±11

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 24.49Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12.09Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 21.02Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.2 ±10.5

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 36.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 43.36Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 28.25Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 75, 9416, 428

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 9416, 428

Auto

15.5 29%

Teleop

23.9 45%

Endgame

14.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2559, 10157, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 10157, 433

Auto

17.3 16%

Teleop

60.5 58%

Endgame

27.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.6pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 34–132
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.8Season APEX200.2

15.5Auto17.3

23.9Teleop60.5

14.3Endgame27.4

22Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	25
teleop	28	120
endgame	9	19
foul	0	20
total	58	184

Result

Final score

58 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 38.3 pts

Match videos

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