Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.46 – 112.03

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 617.3 ±9.3

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 69.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 12.84Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 105.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.2 ±10.5

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 38.05Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 44.55Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 29.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 10918, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 10918, 484

Auto

25.2 13%

Teleop

105.8 56%

Endgame

56.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2559, 10157, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 10157, 433

Auto

16.3 15%

Teleop

65.7 61%

Endgame

26.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.5pts

Blue projected score112pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 89–210
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

617.3Season APEX200.2

25.2Auto16.3

105.8Teleop65.7

56.6Endgame26.4

25Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	24
teleop	144	42
endgame	79	34
foul	10	0
total	287	100

Result

Final score

287 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 55.8 pts

Match videos

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