Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.72 – 58.56

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±9.9

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 11.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 123.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 93.55Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±11

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 24.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10600, 272, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 272, 5181

Auto

44.3 19%

Teleop

124.4 54%

Endgame

62.6 27%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 9416, 428

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 9416, 428

Auto

16.2 30%

Teleop

24.5 46%

Endgame

12.9 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228.7pts

Blue projected score58.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.2
Score range: 36–252
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 130.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX247.8

44.3Auto16.2

124.4Teleop24.5

62.6Endgame12.9

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	15
teleop	103	23
endgame	47	21
foul	0	0
total	193	59

Result

Final score

193 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Match videos

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