Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.57 – 110.67

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.3 ±10.5

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 25.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 46.17Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 79.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 25.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 49.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 35.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5407, 10070, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 10070, 708

Auto

34.1 23%

Teleop

81.7 56%

Endgame

31.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 423, 10993, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 10993, 1168

Auto

19.2 18%

Teleop

43.2 41%

Endgame

42.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score110.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.9
Score range: 87–175
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 130.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.3Season APEX267

34.1Auto19.2

81.7Teleop43.2

31.2Endgame42.4

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	58	52
endgame	31	11
foul	0	0
total	120	102

Result

Final score

120 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Match videos

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