Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

238.2 – 116.74

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 13 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±9.9

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 14.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 126.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 96.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 27.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 51.19Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 38.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10600, 272, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 272, 5181

Auto

41.2 17%

Teleop

128.8 54%

Endgame

68.2 29%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 423, 10993, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 10993, 1168

Auto

25.8 23%

Teleop

52.2 46%

Endgame

35.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score238.2pts

Blue projected score116.7pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.5
Score range: 93–262
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX267

41.2Auto25.8

128.8Teleop52.2

68.2Endgame35.3

0Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	34
teleop	108	58
endgame	101	43
foul	0	5
total	241	140

Result

Final score

241 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 13 pts

Match videos

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