Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.77 – 118.83

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267 ±10.4

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 26.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 49.94Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 36.68Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.2 ±10.5

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 39.48Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 46.97Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32.38Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 423, 10993, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 10993, 1168

Auto

24.8 23%

Teleop

48.0 44%

Endgame

36.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2559, 10157, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2559, 10157, 433

Auto

20.8 18%

Teleop

67.5 60%

Endgame

24.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.8pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.1
Score range: 89–143
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267Season APEX200.2

24.8Auto20.8

48Teleop67.5

36.1Endgame24.5

71Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	35
teleop	81	45
endgame	29	16
foul	0	0
total	144	96

Result

Final score

144 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 27 pts

Match videos

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