Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.12 – 78.08

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 182.9 ±11.7

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 22.79Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 32.33Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 7Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.5 ±10.5

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 54.14Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 4.72Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 19.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10997, 9014, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 9014, 10918

Auto

9.0 14%

Teleop

30.7 49%

Endgame

23.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 272, 10600, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 272, 10600, 10993

Auto

18.3 24%

Teleop

32.1 41%

Endgame

27.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.1pts

Blue projected score78.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16
Score range: 41–99
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 115.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

182.9Season APEX363.5

9Auto18.3

30.7Teleop32.1

23.3Endgame27.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	34
teleop	13	101
endgame	28	52
foul	0	0
total	55	187

Result

Final score

55 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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