Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.63 – 157.85

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221 ±11.2

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 2.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 47.56Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±13.5

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 124.41Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 15.75Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 17.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10170, 10070, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 10070, 433

Auto

24.2 30%

Teleop

41.6 52%

Endgame

14.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2607, 11225, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2607, 11225, 423

Auto

30.2 19%

Teleop

91.6 58%

Endgame

35.1 22%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score157.9pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.2
Score range: 60–181
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 129.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221Season APEX359.6

24.2Auto30.2

41.6Teleop91.6

14.7Endgame35.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	42
teleop	30	87
endgame	15	89
foul	0	5
total	70	223

Result

Final score

70 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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