Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

207.12 – 38.42

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.3 ±9.9

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 71.2Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 97.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 38.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±11

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 6.22Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 19.12Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 13.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 5181, 2559

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 5181, 2559

Auto

34.5 17%

Teleop

114.8 56%

Endgame

56.4 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10600, 75, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10600, 75, 9014

Auto

9.3 24%

Teleop

10.2 26%

Endgame

19.4 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score207.1pts

Blue projected score38.4pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 168.7
Score range: 15–230
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 126.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.3Season APEX222.8

34.5Auto9.3

114.8Teleop10.2

56.4Endgame19.4

55Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	18
teleop	135	59
endgame	38	29
foul	0	15
total	211	121

Result

Final score

211 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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