Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.07 – 104.89

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±11.7

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 46.24Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 53.1Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 16.73Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.2 ±12.4

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 1.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 79.01Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 24.4Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10157, 10993, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 10993, 10989

Auto

9.3 8%

Teleop

59.4 52%

Endgame

45.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10170, 708, 6226

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 708, 6226

Auto

27.6 27%

Teleop

62.8 61%

Endgame

11.9 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 82–139
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 127.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.4Season APEX214.2

9.3Auto27.6

59.4Teleop62.8

45.2Endgame11.9

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	28
teleop	1	57
endgame	42	24
foul	15	20
total	74	129

Result

Final score

74 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 33.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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