Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.17 – 60.77

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.8 ±8.7

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 40.65Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 108.74Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 131.78Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±11

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 28.13Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 12.99Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 19.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 433, 484, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 484, 272

Auto

39.7 14%

Teleop

172.3 62%

Endgame

66.9 24%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5407, 10918, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 10918, 423

Auto

10.4 17%

Teleop

26.7 43%

Endgame

25.7 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score281.2pts

Blue projected score60.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220.4
Score range: 38–304
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.8Season APEX240.1

39.7Auto10.4

172.3Teleop26.7

66.9Endgame25.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	106	10
endgame	55	29
foul	0	0
total	194	53

Result

Final score

194 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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