Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.71 – 221.3

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11.7

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 51.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 16.09Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 9.8Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.4 ±9.3

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.61Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 92.18Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 107.51Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 203, 6808

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 203, 6808

Auto

19.5 27%

Teleop

26.7 37%

Endgame

26.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9014, 5181, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 5181, 484

Auto

29.0 13%

Teleop

129.2 59%

Endgame

59.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score221.3pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 53–246
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.8Season APEX549.4

19.5Auto29

26.7Teleop129.2

26.3Endgame59.9

107Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	23
teleop	31	98
endgame	33	45
foul	0	0
total	72	166

Result

Final score

72 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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