Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22 – 58.79

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140 ±12.8

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 5.07Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 11.42Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 5.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±14.8

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 18.43Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 30.97Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 9.39Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10949, 203, 11366

/ 100 compat

Projected

22 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 203, 11366

Auto

7.6 37%

Teleop

11.8 58%

Endgame

1.1 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 102, 2559, 11225

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 102, 2559, 11225

Auto

21.7 39%

Teleop

29.2 52%

Endgame

5.3 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22pts

Blue projected score58.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.8
Score range: -1–82
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 127.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140Season APEX161.5

7.6Auto21.7

11.8Teleop29.2

1.1Endgame5.3

47Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	16
teleop	30	80
endgame	16	36
foul	0	0
total	54	132

Result

Final score

54 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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