Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.18 – 64.56

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.7 ±9.8

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 93.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 30.7Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 29.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158.1 ±12.2

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 47.52Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 10.42Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 6.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 1168, 6921

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 1168, 6921

Auto

29.7 19%

Teleop

91.2 59%

Endgame

33.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 10997, 10600

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 10997, 10600

Auto

21.8 33%

Teleop

17.8 27%

Endgame

26.8 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score154.2pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.6
Score range: 42–177
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 127.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.7Season APEX158.1

29.7Auto21.8

91.2Teleop17.8

33Endgame26.8

16Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	115	27
endgame	59	22
foul	0	0
total	202	72

Result

Final score

202 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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