Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.96 – 103.62

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

127 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±11.2

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 27.65Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 130.19Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 17.12Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±11.2

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 19.13Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12.53Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 71.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6226, 2607, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6226, 2607, 9014

Auto

36.2 21%

Teleop

93.1 53%

Endgame

45.2 26%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10989, 9416, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10989, 9416, 3314

Auto

6.9 6%

Teleop

62.5 59%

Endgame

37.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.3
Score range: 81–198
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 128.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX356.4

36.2Auto6.9

93.1Teleop62.5

45.2Endgame37.2

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	73	44
endgame	35	12
foul	0	5
total	127	81

Result

Final score

127 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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