Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.22 – 133.22

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.1 ±11.2

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 11.03Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 30.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 43.03Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.5 ±11.2

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 4.42Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX -1.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 129.98Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10997, 6921, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 6921, 433

Auto

10.8 13%

Teleop

53.4 66%

Endgame

16.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10949, 10170, 272

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 10170, 272

Auto

25.8 19%

Teleop

69.7 52%

Endgame

38.9 29%

Strengths

· 272 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 61–156
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 127.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.1Season APEX343.5

10.8Auto25.8

53.4Teleop69.7

16.7Endgame38.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	29
teleop	44	95
endgame	22	19
foul	0	0
total	70	143

Result

Final score

70 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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