Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251 – 78.94

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.6 ±14.5

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 15.7Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 10.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 224.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.1 ±11.2

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 66.7Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 10.52Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 1.72Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11225, 11366, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

251 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11225, 11366, 341

Auto

64.1 26%

Teleop

142.2 59%

Endgame

36.6 15%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 9014, 5490

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 9014, 5490

Auto

8.0 11%

Teleop

34.4 47%

Endgame

30.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251pts

Blue projected score78.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.1
Score range: 56–274
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.6Season APEX360.1

64.1Auto8

142.2Teleop34.4

36.6Endgame30.8

39Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	17
teleop	110	73
endgame	12	46
foul	0	0
total	192	136

Result

Final score

192 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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