Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.62 – 53.33

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.9 ±11.2

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 45.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 27.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 71.87Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.2 ±9.8

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 5.48Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 15.85Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10157, 6226, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 6226, 3314

Auto

26.1 19%

Teleop

73.1 53%

Endgame

39.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 433, 10949, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 10949, 10918

Auto

11.2 22%

Teleop

21.5 43%

Endgame

17.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.6pts

Blue projected score53.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.3
Score range: 28–171
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.9Season APEX233.2

26.1Auto11.2

73.1Teleop21.5

39.8Endgame17.3

32Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	10
teleop	104	15
endgame	38	24
foul	0	0
total	163	49

Result

Final score

163 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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