Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.97 – 67.69

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.6 ±11.2

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 13.8Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 102.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 23.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.1 ±11.7

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 12.78Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 35.06Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 19.85Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 203, 484, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 484, 423

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

83.8 60%

Endgame

43.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10989, 1168, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10989, 1168, 9014

Auto

10.7 16%

Teleop

36.8 55%

Endgame

19.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 45–163
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 262 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.6Season APEX198.1

13.1Auto10.7

83.8Teleop36.8

43.5Endgame19.5

23Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	74	25
endgame	58	30
foul	10	20
total	171	91

Result

Final score

171 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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