Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.48 – 304.42

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.3 ±11.2

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 2.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 13.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 43.02Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.7 ±9.9

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 80.07Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 1.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 222.56Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5490, 9416, 433

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5490, 9416, 433

Auto

8.8 16%

Teleop

38.5 69%

Endgame

8.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 10600, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 10600, 341

Auto

70.6 24%

Teleop

174.1 59%

Endgame

51.5 17%

Strengths

· 341 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score59.5pts

Blue projected score304.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -244.9
Score range: 36–327
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 126.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.3Season APEX427.7

8.8Auto70.6

38.5Teleop174.1

8.6Endgame51.5

35Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	72
teleop	27	183
endgame	21	69
foul	0	0
total	54	324

Result

Final score

54 – 324

Prediction correct · off by 12.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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