Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

16.11 – 152.76

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.1 ±12.8

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 11.43Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX -0.62Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 5.3Rank 33Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.1 ±13.1

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 97.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11225Wolfimus

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 1.01Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 54.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10989, 10949, 10997

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10989, 10949, 10997

Auto

-4.9 0%

Teleop

4.7 26%

Endgame

18.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 484, 11225, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 11225, 3314

Auto

24.7 17%

Teleop

85.0 58%

Endgame

35.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score16.1pts

Blue projected score152.8pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.6
Score range: -6–175
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 123.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.1Season APEX590.1

-4.9Auto24.7

4.7Teleop85

18.6Endgame35.7

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	28
teleop	14	158
endgame	6	63
foul	0	0
total	29	249

Result

Final score

29 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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