Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.5 – 69.97

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±11

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX 47.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 29.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 10.87Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.1 ±11.7

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 42.74Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 28.21Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5490The Dark Byte

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -0.98Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10993, 2559, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10993, 2559, 9416

Auto

12.4 15%

Teleop

26.9 32%

Endgame

45.8 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10157, 6921, 5490

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 6921, 5490

Auto

13.3 21%

Teleop

40.7 63%

Endgame

10.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.5pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 48–110
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.6Season APEX247.1

12.4Auto13.3

26.9Teleop40.7

45.8Endgame10.4

39Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	9
teleop	74	65
endgame	31	51
foul	0	0
total	119	125

Result

Final score

119 – 125

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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